No matter what city, state, or country you live in, the novel coronavirus - also known as Covid-19 - has most likely dramatically affect your life and the lives of those around you. At the very least, our daily news outlets are saturated with coverage about the global pandemic, with regards to local cases, travel bans, and government debate on the most appropriate course of action. For us in New York City, the hysteria escalated dramatically over the past few days, as frightened customers cleared supermarket shelves, companies ordered their employees to work from home, and the mayor debates whether or not to close public schools for 1.1 million students.
When the virus first emerged at the wild animal market in Wuhan, China, the coronavirus epidemic seemed to emulate those experienced over the past several decades, including SARS, Zika, and Ebola. However, the case and death count for coronavirus quickly surpassed those from recent history, ultimately reaching the level of a pandemic affecting over 150 countries, with more than 160,000 cases and over 6,000 deaths, numbers that continue to rise each day.
Although Covid-19 has caused increasing hysteria and fear worldwide, data concerning the development of this virus has been fascinating the track, leading to a variety of innovative and inspiring visualizations to help us better understand what we are up against. As someone who has passionately (and I’ll admit, a bit neurotically) tracked this data since the beginning, I summarize and feature some of my favorite sites and visualizations below. As we continue to battle this health crisis in the coming months, I will update this post with additional visualizations and data trackers that I come across as well. In the meantime, stay safe and healthy.
Worldometers - Coronavirus
Since I first started tracking the coronavirus development in early January, with the first cases in Wuhan, worldometers has been my go-to spot for updated information about the number of confirmed cases, deaths, and recovered patients.
In addition to providing summary information as displayed above, worldometers also displays graphs of these summary statistics over time, allowing us to visualize how quickly the number of cases/deaths is increasing, and when the rate of increase changes dramatically, particularly as the virus spreads to additional countries and areas of the world. Based on the number of active and closed cases, we can see how serious the cases are and the overall death rate of the virus. When the site first started tracking this information, approximately 18-20% of closed cases resulted in deaths. However, as the virus has spread and more people initially infected have recovered from their infections, this percentage dropped as low as 6%, although now it has settled around 7% for the time being.
Finally, the site provides a breakdown of cases by country, with infomation for each as to the number of cases, deaths, and recovered patients, as well as the increase from the previous day (if applicable). While this section of the site started with just a few rows, as the number of infected countries stayed relatively small, in the past couple weeks, the list has grown extensive, now encompassing over 150 countries, with many severe outbreaks across the world (Iran and Italy being the worst to date). Possibly most interesting to me in this section has been the final column, which tracks the total number of cases per 1 million people in the population. This allows us to evaluate the severity of the pandemic in each country with regards to its size, with medium-sized countries such as Italy, Iran, South Korea, and Spain confirming at least 3x the number of cases (almost 7x as many in Italy) with respect to their population size as in China.
In an era characterized by the vast influx of information - and misinformation - sites such as worldometers that rely on strict numbers and data tracking as the source of facts are invaluable. When the boundary between reasonable fear and mass hysteria begins to blur, turn to sites such as this one for the most accurate and unbiased information.
covid19 SG
Across the world, over 150 countries now have coronavirus cases, at varying levels of severity. The speed and magnitude of each countries’ response has been indicative of two things: (1) how severe the outbreak eventually became in that country, and (2) how prepared that country initially was for the outbreak. As coronavirus reveals the strengths and weaknesses in each countries’ response, one country seems to rise above the rest in the strength of their response. Singapore has been prasied by multiple governments and organizations for their quickness and resolve in quarantining citizens and taking proactive measures to avoid a severe outbreak.
Given the transparency of patient data and availability of information about each infection, one citizen has created a site dedicated to tracking the outbreak through a series of innovative visualizations. Similar to worldometers above, covid19 SG’s dashboard provides a summary of the number of confirmed cases, current cases, and severe cases, as well as a breakdown of those cases per day over time.
![]https://github.com/huntersapienza/Novel-Coronavirus/blob/master/Covid%20Blog%20Post/singapore1.png?raw=true)
However, the network graph provides the most fascinating visualization of the outbreak across Singapore. With each case represent as a different node, directional edges connect each node to each other via direct contact, or transmission at a specific location or event. Thus, we can see how the virus has spread throughout the city and from which events or locations a high number of cases have emerged, allowing citizens to determine whether or not they may be infected or are at a higher risk of infection. Therefore, new cases are easier to identify quickly, allowing the country to contain the outbreak faster than many other countries in which the number of infections has become severe.
This site has been made possible primarily due to the availability of infection data, a privilege not available in most countries to either a lack of efficient data collection processes or patient confidentiality regulations. However, in this case, it has allowed Singapore to effectively respond to the coronavirus pandemic in a way that few other countries seem able to replicate. As we continue to fight covid-19 in the coming months, I hope that Singapore can serve as an exemplar to other countries with regards to quarantine measures, efficient responsiveness, and data transparency in a way that will contribute to our survival, and allow us to, ultimately, overcome this health crisis.
“Flattening the Curve” with The Washington Post
Across the world, countries have responded to coronavirus outbreaks with varying degrees of quarantine measures, whether enforcing travel bans on other countries, mandating their citizens self-quarantine indoors, or closing schools and asking employees to work from home, in an effort to reduce the spread of the virus. However, the effectiveness of these quarantines appears to vary, depending on the responsiveness and compliance of citizens who may become restless or not take the precautions seriously. Just yesterday, I even left the apartment to take our dog for a walk, assuming most people would be indoors, only to find the streets busier than usual, and Central Park overflowing with picnickers, runners, and other dog-walkers (I unfortunately feel ashamed to have contributed to the crowds).
However, The Washington Post, in an article that speaks to the importance of “flattening the curve,” provides a series of visualzations that simulate how quarantine measures for both infected and uninfected individuals contribute the spreading out of cases over time. In the image below, we see how flattening the curve truly impacts the development of the outbreak. Not only is the outbreak onset delayed with quarantine and social distancing measures, but additionally, the number of cases over time decreases dramatically and the peak number of cases at any given cases is substantially lower, the point that the number will hopefully not overwhelm healthcare capacity in that country.
Across four different simulations, The Washington Post article demonstrates how different degrees of quarantine and social distancing allow this flattening of the curve to occur:
- Without any quarantine measures
- A forced quarantine of infected individuals (with presumed ineffectiveness in some cases)
- Social distancing with a quarter of the population still mobile
- Social distancing with only one out of every eight individuals still mobile
Below, we provide snapshots of the beginning and end of the simulation for scenario two above:
Beginning
End
As you can see, in this case, the entire population eventually becomes infected, but the rate at which this occurs has decreased substantially with the quarantine measures in place. This allows many of the infected patients to recover as more infections appear, keeping the number of current cases well within healthcare capacity. The social distancing simulations that follow show even more promising results (displayed below), providing evidence of the positive impact these measures can have on our ability to fight the pandemic.
Summary
As we continue to fight this global health crisis, the dissemination of accurate and truthful information about the virus remains vital. In the coming weeks, I will update this page with additional resources and visualiztions that aid our understanding of the pandemic and how we can best prepare ourselves.